Navigating Multiple Possible Futures
Every organisation faces strategic choices and trade-offs. In part, these decisions are informed by the org’s view of what the future will look like. In the interdisciplinary field variously called strategic foresight, future studies, or speculative design (among others), at least one thing is clear: there is no singular ‘future’ that awaits discovery.
Instead, there are multiple possible futures that organisations have to prepare for and adapt accordingly. We can construct these possible futures from a mixture of quantitative and qualitative research.
The Role of Qualitative Research: Identifying 'Signals' of Change
Quantitative research is important in constructing possible futures, but even if we use supercomputers to crunch all the publicly-available quantitative data out there, this only tells us half the story of each future. The trends we construct from those methods (e.g. demographic shifts, or metric tons of carbon in the atmosphere) only tell us half the story of what the future might look like. We might over-index on certain metrics over others, and the findings from those metrics are rarely granular enough for a specific organisation’s needs.
As such, any strategic decision made on quantitative trends alone is risky. Where qualitative research comes in is to identify pockets of potential futures that already exist here in the present. In the futures studies field, these are referred to as ‘signals’ of change. These signals constitute a concrete, specific behaviour or practice that’s observed - something experimental, new or unexpected.
We can identify a lot of signals through secondary research - newsmedia is inherently interested in novel examples. But in many cases, we can surface more signals which are detailed and relevant to an organisation, through focused qualitative research. However, we need to make adaptations to the research process to identify these signals- during recruitment, facilitation and analysis.
Recruitment Strategies: Finding Lead Users and Early Adopters
During recruitment, we need to be focusing our efforts on finding customers and non-customers who are considered ‘innovators’ and ‘early adopters’, in Everett Roger’s framework of diffusion of innovation. This small group includes some ‘lead users’ - customers who stretch your organisations’ offerings beyond their limits, or have devised unorthodox ways to use it or combine it with other offerings. It also includes non-customers (or more broadly, external stakeholders) who are doing unusual things in upstream, downstream and adjacent sectors - including but not only startups and entrepreneurs appealing to niche audience segments (e.g. low-value customers, in the context of Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma).
Facilitation Techniques: Sensitivity to Future Discussions
During facilitation, researchers need to become sensitive to how they talk about the future with participants. Researchers can use targeted probes to understand participants’ speculation (what they think could happen, based on their imagination), hopes (what they desire to happen, based on their aspirations and values), expectations (what they think will happen based on past experiences), and anticipations (what they do to prepare for the futures they see). To sharpen this focus, researchers can consider whether to direct participants to talk about their broad sociocultural view of potential futures (better with laypersons), or whether to hone in a specific sector/theme (better with domain experts).
In discussing the future with participants, researchers also need to be clear with time frames - picking one that is near enough that the participant can identify and empathize with their future self, but far enough that they are freed from the constraints of the present. Usually, this is between 5 and 15 years. Consider also sequencing, if you’re combining futures-focused with other research goals or methods. Talking about the future inherently involves participants engaging with their core values, while not being too aware of present constraints and systems. Accordingly, consider integrating futures-focused questions after rapport has been built, but before probing on current habits or practices.
Analysis and Curation: Unpacking Signals and Value-Derived Motivations
During analysis, researchers curate and unpack the rich signal data they’ve uncovered during the research sessions. The key signals to curate are those that could have an outsized impact on our organisation, if they scale up. Questions you can ask yourself when assessing a signal include: What would it look like if that signal becomes widely adopted by a community? What happens? To whom? What are we moving from, and what are we moving towards?
Then, among those curated signals, unpack the various value-derived motivations. Do the actors feel that a particular signal is a positive or negative development? Why? If we’ve spoken to a diverse enough set of participants, we can start to build out an actor map, which could serve as the foundation of a systems map - for one possible future. This serves as a useful artifact to consider the “so what’s” for the company. What are the larger implications and changes for the company if this possible future comes to pass? How can we engage directly and indirectly with external stakeholders if it appears that one of those possible futures is coming to pass?
Building Resilient Strategies: Beyond Immediate Needs
When doing futures-focused research, it’s critical to move beyond immediate ‘pain points’ and ‘needs’, so we have a long-term strategy that remains resilient to disruptions, in whatever form they take. These futures can inform a wide variety of practices, even beyond product. These futures-related methods provide a starting point to explore and build this resiliency in organisations.